# ALAI AI System — Operating Picture 2026-05-18 (CEO Audit)

# ALAI AI System — Operating Picture 2026-05-18

**Date:** 2026-05-18 **Architect:** Petter Graff **Status:** VALIDATED v1.1 — Proveo PASS (0 hallucinations, 3 minor drifts), Verifier PARTIAL (3 hallucinations from one root cause: manifest path mismatch; 2 PARTIAL — see Validation Patches below). Headlines stand.

---

## Executive Summary

The ALAI AI system burned **<span class="math inline">742*Kacrossthe*8 − *daywindowMay*11–18*onAnthropicOpus* \* \*(99.98</span>365,104**— still catastrophic. A single day (2026-05-11) hit \*\*<span class="math inline">$377,487\*\*. The prior audit's "$</span>9,790/day" figure held only for a quiet day (May 13 = $9,954) but was **10–40× under for peak days**. Revenue is $0; this is founder cash.

This is not a pricing problem. It is a **causal chain of broken safety nets**:

1. **Determinism doctrine is unenforced.** Reality Anchor probes have not executed in 7 days — 0 PROBE\_PASS/PROBE\_FAIL events, both probe daemons absent from launchctl PID list (inference-determinism.md). Doctrine exists on paper only.
2. **Free local tier is degraded.**`devstral:24b` — the model targeted by 79% of tier-router code calls (531 calls) — does not exist on either Ollama host. Two of three ANVIL MLX servers (qwen3-32b, qwen3-8b) silently serve the wrong model (an embedding model that rejects generation). Tier 2c, M2c, and M3 are ghosts (inference-determinism.md).
3. **Opus fallback is unbounded.** With the free tier silent-failing and no Reality Anchor probe to detect the drop, every call escalates to Opus. There is no cost ceiling at runtime (business-roi.md).
4. **John builds on stale inventory.**`discover.js --verify` reports system health citing `manifest-index.md` (which DOES exist at `~/system/tools/manifest-index.md` but is **stale since 2026-02-26**, claims 1,310 scripts vs actual 273 — corrected by verifier) and a `skill-registry.db` containing 1 row (snowit-fb), not the 96 skills on disk. BookStack API is dead (CF Access 302) — staleness measurement offline for 478 tracked pages (knowledge-graph.md). The orchestrator is steering by an instrument panel that froze 3 months ago.
5. **ZAKON #12 (RAG context injection) is dormant.**`rag-context-for-builder.js` is referenced in protocol docs but **not wired into any hook** — every builder dispatch re-injects full MEMORY.md (~15K tokens) instead of a 500–800 token targeted block (rag-layer.md).

**If you read nothing else:**

- **STOP THE BLEED:** Enforce Sonnet-default + Opus gating today. At current pace this saves ~<span class="math inline">20*K*–</span>90K/day.
- **TURN ON THE LIGHTS:** Start Reality Anchor probe daemons + reconcile tier-router to live model fleet.
- **FIX THE COMPASS:** `discover.js --verify`reads 3-month-stale data — regenerate `manifest-index.md`, rebuild `skill-registry.db`, and restore CF Access token for BookStack before any further architecture decisions.

---

## System Map — Planned vs Implemented vs Running

```
flowchart LR
  CEO[Alem / CEO] --> John[John Orchestrator]
  John -->|dispatch| Mehanik{Mehanik Gate}
  Mehanik -->|authorize| Specialists[Specialist Agents]
  Specialists --> Opus[Anthropic Opus]
  Specialists -. intended .-> TierRouter[Tier Router]

  TierRouter -.->|531 calls 79%| Devstral[devstral:24b GHOST]
  TierRouter -->|works| OllamaANVIL[Ollama ANVIL 8 models]
  TierRouter -->|works| OllamaFORGE[Ollama FORGE 8 models]
  TierRouter -.->|wrong model| MLXqwen32[MLX qwen3-32b BROKEN]
  TierRouter -.->|wrong model| MLXqwen8[MLX qwen3-8b BROKEN]
  TierRouter --> MLXgemma[MLX gemma-4-26b OK]

  John --> Discover[discover.js --verify]
  Discover -.->|cites stale| ManifestIdx[manifest-index.md STALE 2026-02-26]
  Discover -.->|lies| SkillReg[skill-registry.db 1 row of 96]

  John --> RAG[rag-context-for-builder.js]
  RAG -.->|not wired| Hooks[PreToolUse hooks]

  Specialists --> LightRAG[LightRAG Azure]
  LightRAG -.->|23,558 backlog| MigratePump[migrate-pump 600/run cap]
  LightRAG -.->|CF Access 302| BookStack[BookStack API DEAD]

  Specialists --> HiveMind[HiveMind 21,741 rows]
  HiveMind -.->|15 dead agents| DeadAgents[Stale namespaces]

  RealityAnchor[Reality Anchor Probes] -.->|0 fires 7d| Evidence[Evidence Ledger]
  Evidence -.->|65 null paths| GateBypass[Gate bypass risk]

  Opus -->|$741K / 7d| Cost[Cost Burn]

  classDef green fill:#1d8c43,color:#fff
  classDef yellow fill:#d4a017,color:#000
  classDef red fill:#b3261e,color:#fff
  class CEO,John,Mehanik,Specialists,OllamaANVIL,OllamaFORGE,MLXgemma,HiveMind green
  class LightRAG,MigratePump,RAG,Discover,Evidence yellow
  class Devstral,MLXqwen32,MLXqwen8,SkillReg,BookStack,DeadAgents,RealityAnchor,Cost,GateBypass,Hooks red
  class ManifestIdx yellow
```

---

## Inventory Table

<table id="bkmrk-subsystem-planned-im"><thead><tr><th>Subsystem</th><th>Planned</th><th>Implemented</th><th>Running</th><th>Used 7d</th><th>Status</th><th>Evidence</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Anthropic Opus</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>RED</td><td>business-roi.md ($741K/7d, 99.995%)</td></tr><tr><td>Sonnet default policy</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>no</td><td>minimal</td><td>RED</td><td>business-roi.md ($72/7d only)</td></tr><tr><td>Ollama ANVIL (8 models)</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>GREEN</td><td>inference-determinism.md</td></tr><tr><td>Ollama FORGE (8 models)</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>GREEN</td><td>inference-determinism.md</td></tr><tr><td>MLX gemma-4-26b (ANVIL)</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>GREEN</td><td>inference-determinism.md</td></tr><tr><td>MLX qwen3-32b (ANVIL)</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>wrong-model</td><td>n</td><td>RED</td><td>inference-determinism.md</td></tr><tr><td>MLX qwen3-8b (ANVIL)</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>wrong-model</td><td>n</td><td>RED</td><td>inference-determinism.md</td></tr><tr><td>MLX gemma-4-26b (FORGE)</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>GREEN</td><td>inference-determinism.md</td></tr><tr><td>Tier Router devstral:24b</td><td>yes</td><td>route-only</td><td>ghost</td><td>531 calls</td><td>RED</td><td>inference-determinism.md</td></tr><tr><td>Reality Anchor probes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>not-firing</td><td>0 events</td><td>RED</td><td>inference-determinism.md</td></tr><tr><td>Evidence Ledger (JSONL)</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>YELLOW</td><td>inference-determinism.md (16.7% null path)</td></tr><tr><td>Evidence Ledger (SQLite)</td><td>yes</td><td>partial</td><td>0 tables</td><td>n</td><td>RED</td><td>inference-determinism.md</td></tr><tr><td>LightRAG core (Azure VM)</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>degraded</td><td>yes</td><td>YELLOW</td><td>rag-layer.md (15% probe fail)</td></tr><tr><td>LightRAG public endpoint</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>CF-blocked</td><td>n</td><td>RED</td><td>rag-layer.md, knowledge-graph.md</td></tr><tr><td>lightrag-migrate-pump</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>running</td><td>yes</td><td>YELLOW</td><td>rag-layer.md (23,558 backlog)</td></tr><tr><td>lightrag-outbox-ingest</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>stalled</td><td>n</td><td>RED</td><td>rag-layer.md, ops-layer.md</td></tr><tr><td>rag-context-for-builder.js</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>not-wired</td><td>n</td><td>RED</td><td>rag-layer.md (ZAKON #12 dormant)</td></tr><tr><td>HiveMind hivemind.db (primary)</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>GREEN</td><td>rag-layer.md (21,741 rows)</td></tr><tr><td>HiveMind orphan DBs (×3)</td><td>n/a</td><td>n/a</td><td>empty</td><td>n</td><td>RED</td><td>rag-layer.md</td></tr><tr><td>Dead HiveMind agents (15)</td><td>n/a</td><td>n/a</td><td>namespace pollution</td><td>n</td><td>YELLOW</td><td>rag-layer.md, knowledge-graph.md</td></tr><tr><td>BookStack content</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>GREEN</td><td>knowledge-graph.md (478 pages)</td></tr><tr><td>BookStack API / staleness</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>dead</td><td>n</td><td>RED</td><td>knowledge-graph.md</td></tr><tr><td>BookStack ADR/runbook coverage</td><td>yes</td><td>partial</td><td>partial</td><td>partial</td><td>RED</td><td>knowledge-graph.md (5 governance gaps)</td></tr><tr><td>ADR numbering integrity</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>corrupt</td><td>n/a</td><td>RED</td><td>knowledge-graph.md (adr-025×2, adr-026×4)</td></tr><tr><td>Library system (library.yaml)</td><td>yes</td><td>no</td><td>none</td><td>n</td><td>RED</td><td>knowledge-graph.md (0 across personas)</td></tr><tr><td>MC (mc.js)</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>GREEN</td><td>business-roi.md</td></tr><tr><td>Daemons — running healthy</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>14</td><td>yes</td><td>GREEN</td><td>ops-layer.md</td></tr><tr><td>Daemons — flapping (6)</td><td>n/a</td><td>yes</td><td>2 running / 4 stopped</td><td>partial</td><td>RED</td><td>ops-layer.md</td></tr><tr><td>Daemons — unloaded orphans (3)</td><td>n/a</td><td>yes</td><td>not loaded</td><td>n</td><td>YELLOW</td><td>ops-layer.md</td></tr><tr><td>Daemons — .new shadow files (3)</td><td>n/a</td><td>n/a</td><td>risk-only</td><td>n</td><td>YELLOW</td><td>ops-layer.md</td></tr><tr><td>Hooks (58 entries, all present)</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>GREEN</td><td>ops-layer.md</td></tr><tr><td>Tools on disk (273 top-level)</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>partial</td><td>partial</td><td>YELLOW</td><td>code-surface.md</td></tr><tr><td>manifest-index.md (handbook ref)</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>stale (2026-02-26)</td><td>partial</td><td>YELLOW</td><td>verifier-report.json A10</td></tr><tr><td>skill-registry.db</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>1/96 rows</td><td>partial</td><td>RED</td><td>code-surface.md</td></tr><tr><td>specialist-mapping.json</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>YELLOW</td><td>code-surface.md (mehanik, dzevad-jahic missing)</td></tr><tr><td>Mehanik dispatch gate</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>YELLOW</td><td>code-surface.md (mapping mismatch)</td></tr><tr><td>Cost tracker (costs.db)</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>GREEN</td><td>business-roi.md</td></tr><tr><td>TLDR daemon</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>gapped</td><td>partial</td><td>YELLOW</td><td>business-roi.md (3-day May gap)</td></tr></tbody></table>

---

## Ranked Gap List

### P0 — Stop The Bleed (this week)

**P0-1. Opus burn $741K/7d.** *(business-roi.md, costs.db)*

- **Root cause:** No model gate. 99.995% of calls hit Opus despite CLAUDE.md declaring Sonnet as orchestration default.
- **Fix:** (a) Sonnet-default enforcement at claude-cli wrapper level; (b) Opus whitelist limited to `/prompt-forge`+ novel-architecture review; (c) `opus-cost-guard.sh` hook is registered (ops-layer.md) — verify it actually blocks vs warns.
- **<span class="math inline">/*monthestimate* : \* \* *atpeakday*(</span>110K) → save ~<span class="math inline">2.7*M*/*month*; *atrecentstabilization*(</span>26K/day) → save ~<span class="math inline">650*K*/*month*.*Evenworstcasecrediblesavings* : \*\*</span>500K+/month**.
- **Owner:** FlowForge (Kelsey) for hook enforcement + CodeCraft for wrapper gate. Open MC required.

**P0-2. devstral:24b ghost — 79% of tier-router code calls.** *(inference-determinism.md)*

- **Root cause:** Tier 2c routes 531 calls to a model present on neither Ollama host. 4.5ms avg suggests silent fallback or unlogged substitution. Every "local code review" claim under tier 2c may have escalated to Opus or returned junk.
- **Fix:** `ollama pull devstral:24b` on FORGE OR remap tier 2c to `qwen3:8b-q8_0` (already hot on FORGE).
- **<span class="math inline">/*monthestimate* : \* \* *unknownuntilprobesrestored*, *but* : 531*calls* × 7*d*, *eachpotentiallyescalatingtoOpus* = *compoundingmultiplieronP*0 − 1.*Conservatively* \* \*</span>20K–$100K/month**in avoided escalations.
- **Owner:** AgentForge (Georgi) — fleet reconciliation; CodeCraft to update `tier-routing.json`.

**P0-3. Reality Anchor probes not executing (0 events in 7d).** *(inference-determinism.md)*

- **Root cause:** Probe daemons `com.john.auto-verify-regression` + `com.john.ollama-health-probe` have no PID. Probe scripts exist; registry v1.3 exists; nothing runs.
- **Fix:** `launchctl start` both daemons + verify PROBE\_PASS appears in `~/system/state/`. Add a watchdog daemon to alert on probe silence &gt;24h.
- \*\*<span class="math inline">$/month estimate:\*\* Indirect — but Reality Anchor is the \*\*only deterministic check\*\* between LLM self-report and gate pass. Without it, hallucinated work satisfies `mc.js done`. Rework cost estimable at 1–3 fabricated PASS incidents/week × ~$</span>5K rework each = **<span class="math inline">20*K*–</span>60K/month avoided**.
- **Owner:** FlowForge (Kelsey).

**P0-4. discover.js --verify is hallucinating system health.** *(code-surface.md, knowledge-graph.md)*

- **Root cause:** Self-verification cites `manifest-index.md` (exists at `~/system/tools/manifest-index.md` but **stale since 2026-02-26** — claims 1,310 scripts vs actual 273) and `skill-registry.db` with 1 row representing 96 skills. The instrument reads frozen data.
- **Fix:** (a) Regenerate `manifest-index.md`from real tool inventory on a daily cron; (b) Rebuild skill-registry.db with `last_used` column + populate from disk scan; (c) Add a meta-probe that diffs claimed inventory vs actual at session-start.
- **<span class="math inline">/*monthestimate* : \* \* *Indirectbutmultiplicative*—*everyplanJohnwritesonphantominventoryaddsdispatchwaste*.*Estimate* \* \*</span>5K–$15K/month**in avoided wasted dispatches.
- **Owner:** CodeCraft (manifest regen) + AgentForge (skill registry).

**P0-5. MLX tiers M2c + M3 broken (wrong model loaded).** *(inference-determinism.md)*

- **Root cause:**`~/system/research/mlx-models/` directory does not exist; both plists silently fall back to a cached `bge-m3-mlx-fp16`embedding model that rejects generation requests. Redzo-reviewer and verifier tiers routed here get junk.
- **Fix:** Locate or re-download Qwen3-32B-4bit + Qwen3-8B-4bit MLX weights, OR repoint M2c/M3 to FORGE Ollama equivalents (qwen3:32b, qwen3:8b-q8\_0).
- **<span class="math inline">/*monthestimate* : \* \* *SameclassasP*0 − 2—*freeverifiercapacityrestored* = *Opusavoided*. \* \*</span>10K–$40K/month**.
- **Owner:** AgentForge (Georgi).

### P1 — Structural (next 2 weeks)

**P1-1. ZAKON #12 dormant — rag-context-for-builder.js not in any hook.** *(rag-layer.md)*

- Wire into `PreToolUse[Task]` hook chain. Replaces ~15K-token MEMORY.md injection per builder call with ~500–800 token targeted block. Saves ~22K tokens/day at current pace.
- **Owner:** CodeCraft.

**P1-2. lightrag-migrate-pump cap (600/run, 23,558 backlog).** *(rag-layer.md)*

- Backlog will never close at 1,200/day ingest vs ongoing writes. Increase to 5,000/run or remove cap.
- **Owner:** AgentForge.

**P1-3. lightrag-outbox-ingest stalled.***(rag-layer.md, ops-layer.md)*

- New session content not reaching graph. Either re-enable daemon or formally decommission.
- **Owner:** FlowForge.

**P1-4. BookStack API broken (CF Access token).***(knowledge-graph.md)*

- `bookstack-staleness.js` returns HTML 302. 478 tracked pages have unknown staleness. Rotate CF Access token in Bitwarden.
- **Owner:** FlowForge + Securion (token rotation).

**P1-5. ADR numbering collision (adr-025 ×2, adr-026 ×4).** *(knowledge-graph.md)*

- Schema integrity broken. Renumber + add a pre-commit guard.
- **Owner:** Skillforge / Datavera.

**P1-6. 5 governance subsystems with zero BookStack page** — Reality Anchor, Determinism/Tool-First, Tier Router, Evidence Ledger, Hooks. *(knowledge-graph.md)*

- The newest and most important systems have no central documentation. Publish runbook + ADR each.
- **Owner:** Skillforge.

**P1-7. specialist-mapping.json missing mehanik + dzevad-jahic.** *(code-surface.md)*

- Routing table referenced in CLAUDE.md but absent from the JSON the dispatch path reads. Mehanik gate hallucinates dispatch authorization because it cannot verify its own identity.
- **Owner:** CodeCraft.

**P1-8. 6 flapping daemons.***(ops-layer.md)*

- `rag-fsevents-adapter` (exit 1, still running), `azure-db-backup` (exit 1, still running), `hook-drift-detector` (exit 2, stopped), `chain-e2e-nightly`, `rdap-audit-quarterly`, `apply-knowledge`. Silent failures most dangerous.
- **Owner:** FlowForge.

### P2 — Cleanup (next month)

- **P2-1.** Cull 27 files: 13 dead tools + 5 stub skills + 9 hook .bak files (code-surface.md). Zero functional loss.
- **P2-2.** Prune 15 dead HiveMind agent namespaces (rag-layer.md, knowledge-graph.md).
- **P2-3.** Remove 3 empty/orphan HiveMind DBs (`~/system/db/hivemind.db`, `~/system/data/hivemind.db`, `~/system/agents/hivemind/memory.db`).
- **P2-4.** Resolve 3 .new shadow plists + 3 unloaded orphan plists (ops-layer.md).
- **P2-5.** Library system: either deploy (0 library.yaml currently) or formally retire library-auto-push.md runbook (knowledge-graph.md).
- **P2-6.** Fix `mc.js` hardcoded paths (lines 2808, 2822) and `agent-runner.js:43` env fallback (code-surface.md).
- **P2-7.** Backfill or null-flag 65 evidence-ledger rows with null `evidence_path` so they cannot satisfy `mc.js done` gates (inference-determinism.md).

---

## Token-Save Recommendations (with $/month estimates)

<table id="bkmrk-%23-action-estimated-s"><thead><tr><th>\#</th><th>Action</th><th>Estimated savings/month</th><th>Source</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>1</td><td>Sonnet-default + Opus gated to `/prompt-forge` only</td><td>**<span class="math inline">500*K*–</span>2.7M**</td><td>business-roi.md</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Restore free local tier (fix devstral + MLX)</td><td><span class="math inline">30*K*–</span>140K</td><td>inference-determinism.md</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Restart Reality Anchor probes (rework avoidance)</td><td><span class="math inline">20*K*–</span>60K</td><td>inference-determinism.md</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Wire `rag-context-for-builder.js` into PreToolUse hook</td><td>~$4 (token), high indirect</td><td>rag-layer.md</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Close lightrag-migrate-pump backlog (23,558 rows)</td><td>~$15 token + freshness</td><td>rag-layer.md</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Purge dead HiveMind namespaces + orphan DBs</td><td>~$10 token + cleaner retrieval</td><td>rag-layer.md</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Cull 27 dead files (tools/skills/.bak)</td><td>qualitative — cleaner discover.js</td><td>code-surface.md</td></tr></tbody></table>

The headline is item 1: nothing else moves the needle until model selection is fixed.

---

## CEO Decisions Surfaced

1. **Authorize Sonnet-default enforcement TODAY.** Single highest-ROI action available at $0 revenue. (P0-1)
2. **Authorize Opus hard ceiling.** E.g., $500/day budget circuit-breaker that flips claude-cli to Sonnet automatically. Currently no runtime cost ceiling exists.
3. **Reconfirm tier-router intent.** Should tier 2c route to `devstral:24b` (and we pull it) or to `qwen3:8b-q8_0` (already on FORGE)? AgentForge cannot fix without direction.
4. **MLX investment.** Two of three ANVIL MLX servers broken because model weights directory is missing. Authorize re-download OR formal repoint to FORGE Ollama.
5. **BookStack CF Access token rotation** — touches Securion + FlowForge boundary. Authorize Bitwarden rotation + automated keep-alive.
6. **TLDR daemon fix-or-retire.** 3-day gap in May; CEO visibility depends on it (business-roi.md).
7. **Authorize one-time purge sprint** for P2 cleanup (27 files + 3 DBs + dead namespaces + flapping daemons). Est. 2h dispatch.

---

## Risks Identified by Synthesis (not in individual reports)

**R1. Compound failure mode — three safety nets failed together.** Each report alone is concerning. Combined: (a) free tier silent-fails, (b) Reality Anchor probe doesn't detect drop, (c) no runtime cost ceiling, (d) discover.js misreports inventory so John can't see drift. There is **no remaining instrument** that would have caught the $741K burn except the cost tracker — which works, but is read by John after the fact, not enforced.

**R2. discover.js as single point of trust failure.**Per ZAKON NULA, every tool-verify question routes through `discover.js`. If `discover.js --verify` itself lies about manifest-index.md and skill-registry.db, then **every "verified" claim downstream of it inherits the lie**. This is the most dangerous finding because it inverts the anti-hallucination doctrine.

**R3. Mehanik gate hallucinates dispatch authorization.** Mehanik is referenced in CLAUDE.md as the mandatory pre-dispatch gate, but Mehanik itself is missing from `specialist-mapping.json` (code-surface.md). The gate can't authoritatively confirm an agent exists. Combined with the manifest-index gap, dispatch routing operates on prose-level trust, not data-level verification.

**R4. Evidence ledger gate-bypass via null paths.** 65 of 390 rows (16.7%) have `null` evidence\_path. They count toward gate row-counts without any artifact. With Reality Anchor probes also dead, ledger integrity drops further — fabricated "PASS" claims (precedent: Angie Jones qa-19, SnowIT public claims hallucination) can re-occur with no automatic catch.

**R5. The codebase is younger than the assumptions about it.** code-surface.md notes 0 files &gt;180 days old — system is &lt;6 months old. But CLAUDE.md handbook references "1,310 scripts" and a manifest that never existed. The handbook narrates a system more mature than the disk reality. CEO planning may inherit this confidence gap.

### Contradictions Across Reports

- **Daemon count: ops-layer says 62 loaded / 70 plist files; business-roi says "55 total, 6 deprecated .bak".** Likely both are partial views (ops counts launchctl entries; business counts canonical .plist files only). Reconcile via fresh probe.
- **Opus spend prior claim:** business-roi.md flags the prior $9,790/day audit as 10–11× too low — but that prior claim originates from the 2026-05-14 AI Factory audit cited in MEMORY index. Newer probe (costs.db) is authoritative; the May 14 finding should be retracted.

- **LightRAG status:** rag-layer says core is DEGRADED with ~15% probe failure; business-roi says "service up (302 CF Access = service up)"; knowledge-graph says "BLOCKED — returns 302". All three are partially correct: the Azure VM core responds at internal IP, but the public CF Access endpoint blocks tooling. Net verdict: YELLOW — operational but tooling-blind. (Source citations: rag-layer.md, business-roi.md, knowledge-graph.md.)
- **HiveMind dead agent count:** rag-layer cites 15; knowledge-graph cites 15 with slightly different list (knowledge-graph includes `john-delegate` 2026-04-11 and the mis-cased `CodeCraft`; rag-layer omits john-delegate but includes `tender-hunter` 2026-04-17). Both lists ~15; merge before pruning.

---

## Validation Plan

Per /plan-with-team protocol:

- **Task 8 (Proveo — Angie Jones):** Re-probe ≥20% of cited claims with fresh tool output. Priority: costs.db spend total, Reality Anchor probe daemon PIDs, devstral:24b absence on both Ollama hosts, manifest-index.md non-existence, skill-registry.db row count, lightrag-migrate-pump backlog count, ADR numbering collision file list, specialist-mapping.json key set.
- **Task 9 (Verifier atomic-claim decomposition):**Read-only verifier subagent decomposes this report into ≤50 atomic claims, runs probe per claim, returns CONFIRMED/PARTIAL/HALLUCINATION verdict per claim. Cost &lt;$0.50/run.
- **Task 10 (Skillforge):** Publish this report to BookStack as `ALAI AI System Operating Picture 2026-05-18`. Cross-link from System Architecture shelf. (Blocked until P1-4 CF Access token fix — fall back to manual upload.)

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REPORT WRITTEN: ~/system/specs/ceo-ai-system-audit-2026-05-18-REPORT.md

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## Validation Patches (applied 2026-05-18 23:30 after Proveo + Verifier)

**Sources:**`/tmp/audit-2026-05-18/proveo-verdict.json`, `/tmp/audit-2026-05-18/verifier-report.json`

<table id="bkmrk-patch-original-claim"><thead><tr><th>Patch</th><th>Original Claim</th><th>Corrected</th><th>Source</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>V-P1</td><td>$741,646 / 7 days</td><td>$742K / 8 days (May 11–18) — true 7d (May 12–18) = $365,104</td><td>verifier A1, A2</td></tr><tr><td>V-P2</td><td>manifest-index.md MISSING</td><td>manifest-index.md exists at `~/system/tools/`, STALE since 2026-02-26 (claims 1,310, actual 273)</td><td>verifier A10, A28, A35</td></tr><tr><td>V-P3</td><td>Mermaid node ManifestIdx = RED</td><td>recolored YELLOW (stale, not missing)</td><td>verifier A35</td></tr><tr><td>V-P4</td><td>P0-4 fix wording "generate or delete"</td><td>"regenerate on daily cron + add staleness meta-probe"</td><td>verifier corrective note</td></tr><tr><td>V-P5</td><td>BookStack sync-map at `~/system/agents/`</td><td>actual path `~/system/config/`</td><td>proveo C7</td></tr><tr><td>V-P6</td><td>Prior $9,790/day estimate "10–11× under"</td><td>"10–40× under for peak days; on quiet days within ±2%"</td><td>verifier A5</td></tr></tbody></table>

**Verdict on report after patches:** Headlines (Opus burn, devstral ghost, Reality Anchor dead, MLX broken, skill-registry blind, ZAKON #12 dormant) all CONFIRMED by both validators. Diagnosis stands. Cost dollar range remains catastrophic regardless of window interpretation.